2011年6月19日星期日

Zhengjun Lin: Multiple factors boosting the price of chemical fiber raw materials rose

The recent emergence of chemical fiber raw material prices rise quickly, domestic PTA spot prices from early December 2010 low of 9170 yuan / ton up to the
current 11,780 yuan / ton, up 2,610 yuan, rose to 28.46%; MEG prices from 2010 In late November of 7900 yuan / ton up to the present 9,950 yuan / ton, up
2,050 yuan, rose 25.95%. PTA is the main raw material polyester polyester, to promote the rapid rise in the price of PET polyester production costs increase,
thus promoting the polyester filament, staple fiber prices.
 As the impact of changes in market supply and demand, and sometimes a short decline in polyester 
non return valves, stainless steel ball valve china manufacturer, industrial ball valve manufacturer, ball valve suppliers
staple fiber prices have gone up even more than PTA. Therefore, the recent polyester filament, polyester staple fiber prices rise again, but the overall
gains were less than PTA. Polyester staple fiber prices from December 21, 2010 of 12,100 yuan / ton up to the current 14,500 yuan / ton, up 2,400 yuan, or
nearly 19.86%; the price of POY polyester staple fiber is basically to keep pace with, or are about 20%. 1 Multiple factors lead to higher prices of global
excess liquidity, rising commodity prices is an important reason for the recent domestic polyester raw material prices, the main reason is global excess
liquidity. During the 2008 financial crisis, many countries have to increase the money supply as the main economic incentives, resulting in the current
global excess liquidity. In most countries have begun to sound monetary policy, the greatest impact on the global economy in the United States is still way
to increase the quantitative easing policy, the money supply. This makes the global dollar liquidity serious excess speculation in vogue. The funds futures
market speculation is the main battlefield. Including international and domestic cotton futures prices rise quickly become the fourth quarter of last year
and this year to promote the 1 to 2 months of the current round of cotton, chemical fiber and its raw materials, the main driver of prices. The domestic
price of cotton futures contracts on 10 November last year hit 33,600 yuan / ton, a new high, the rapid fall to January 29, 24,180 yuan / ton, down 28%; then
began a wave of rapidly rising market, the last trading day before the Spring Festival (February 1) has hit a new high since listing, the major 1109 contract
closed at 33,725 yuan / ton, the highest on November 10 last year, higher than the price of 125 yuan / ton; since last November 29, the date has gained 
39.5%. The first trading day after the holiday on 9 February 1109 the main contract prices opened higher at 34,000 yuan / ton, but the late close at 33,180
yuan / ton, 11, another record high, breaking the 34,000 yuan mark to close at 34050 yuan / ton, the recent trend to maintain high order oscillations. With
the rapid development of economic globalization, deepening of China's economic interaction with the world economy is more obvious, domestic and international
futures and spot market linkage is also significantly enhanced.
Round of domestic cotton futures prices rose sharply, to have a strong passive, mainly due to
sharp rise in international cotton prices, driven over the same period New York cotton futures more robust performance. November 9, 2010 New York cotton
futures contract price hit 151.23 cents / lb record high, after the rapid fall, to November 23, 2010 fell to 113.09 cents, after a correction after a month,
again rapid rise, to January 25 rose to 161.83 cents, more than in November 2010 high of more than 10 cents, round rose as high as 43.1%; then continues to
oscillate up. February 10, the main American Cotton March contract closed out strong after the daily limit expansion board 700 points, closing at 187.58
cents to 192.63 cents a plate. However, 11 of the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was up only now, with the main contract rose 145 points to close 1109 at
33,795 yuan, K-line increase in three Lianyin left, volume, open interest have increased slightly, to increase market differences (details Figure 1). Round
of textile raw materials futures prices show the consistency of the trend is obvious. Year 2010, the New York cotton futures prices rose as high as 86.38%,
Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose 75.32%. September 2010 to early November, is the U.S. cotton futures prices rise quickly pull the Zhengzhou cotton
futures prices in early December to present the performance of this round up was ven more prominent, and the United States is much larger than cotton or
cotton Zheng gains. 2 domestic excess liquidity and investment channels and making money poured into the futures market? ≈ vent?? Χ more quail Xuan;?? 009
to 2010 to implement monetary policy and active fiscal policy, resulting in nearly two years The excess money is issued, although since the end of 2010, has
begun to shrink rapidly, but the practical effect of shrinkage will take some time to reflect. Meanwhile, the domestic real estate market since 2010,
relatively stable performance of the investment capital had a certain amount of crowding-out effect; prolonged slump in the stock market also shows that
capital is not the ideal place to stay. In the international market is still excess liquidity in the case, the trend in international commodity markets is
relatively strong, while many domestic futures trend associated with the strong international market, excess liquidity became an ideal gathering place. This
has resulted in the fourth quarter of last year, since the domestic futures market in many varieties have a more substantial increases.

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