2011 U.S. cotton production increase or limited

U.S. cotton futures analysis Flanagan, senior expert has said that although the international cotton prices have rocketed to record highs, the U.S. cotton
area may increase, but because Texas and Alabama cotton production continued below normal rainfall level, the late U.S. cotton abandonment rate may increase.
Data show that since the end of August this year, Texas is only 20.2 mm total rainfall, average 27 percentage points lower than five years; Louisiana average
43 percentage points lower than five years. Weather models show that, by the La Nina weather effect, sowing date (usually 3-6 months) or the cotton-growing
areas of drought again, drought in western Texas will continue until May next year.
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Flanagan said this year's U.S. cotton area of ​​6707 hectares, an increase of 21%. 2011/12 cotton area may reach 8201 acres, it is expected that next year the
U.S. cotton abandonment rate of 15%, much higher than 2.4% this year, growing cotton will be less this year. If the main cotton-producing regions during the
spring next year suffered a severe drought, an increase of U.S. cotton production will be limited, in December 2011 to support contract or higher.
Dwindling supply of raw materials is the world's economic agenda poses a serious challenge. 2006 climbed to a record high price of oil, while metals, basic
chemicals and other raw materials, inventory reduction, the future economic prospects of the world poses a great threat. In the textile industry, a similar
phenomenon has become very obvious. Today's assessment, man-made synthetic fibers (MMSF) and man-made cellulose fibers (MMCF) of natural fiber production,
and production will not meet future global demand for fiber. In addition, cotton production due to several factors present tense. World population and global
GDP growth, per capita fiber demand increase, but can not expand or reduce land, water scarcity, these important factors will affect the future supply of
cotton. For example, in 20 years, food production increased by 40%. Therefore, the area has undergone great changes in land use, crop acreage expanded at the
expense of it is cotton acreage. Increasing demand for cotton, cotton production less, known as the cotton gap. International Cotton Advisory Committee
(ICAC) has been to draw attention in the future supply of cotton to reduce the problem. In addition, according to the current estimated growth rate, MMSF and
MMCF output growth can not completely alleviate the tight supply of cotton is expected. The key question remains: how to fill the gap of cotton? Assuming the
next 20 years the world textile fiber composite growth rate (CAGR) of 3%, this assumption is to support a key factor in fiber gap. According to this
forecast, today's man-made cellulose fibers of the gap has reached 500,000 tons by 2030 could eventually reach 11 million tons, or about 140 million tons of
aggregate demand is the fiber of 8%. According to current forecasts and current investment, 2030, man-made cellulose fibers make up 22 million tons of cotton
is expected to be a small part of the gap. Meanwhile, the man-made fibers will make up only part of the demand for cotton, especially with the
characteristics of cotton fiber. In short, by 2030, the gap may be about 11 million tons of cellulose, the basis of this assessment, man-made cellulose
fibers and man-made fiber producers will face a great opportunity.