Macro "short" ferocious decline accelerated PTA

 PTA since February 15 after a record high of 12,508, prices continued to fall shocks, stacked to new lows. Suppressed by the impact of domestic

macroeconomic policies, PTA of the price drop again this week, as of April 19 closing, PTA main 1109 contract closed at 10,274 points,

Down from high point of 2234 points, down over 17% rate. Considering the macro-policy side, PTA, and cotton and other downstream factors, the author is

expected to price later on the PTA will continue to maintain the downward trend of shock, the next goal or dropped 10000. 

    Macro-control continues, the textile industry increased pressure

    15 Bureau of Statistics data released in the first quarter CPI rose by 5%, March CPI is up 5.4%, the highest 32-month high, beyond the control of the
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national target this year. CPI in the first quarter high, domestic policy tightening than expected

Strong, 17 evening, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, this is the fourth time this year the central bank raised the

deposit reserve ratio, is the central bank reserve ratio since last year, the tenth increase to the currency withdrawn from circulation, control inflation,

stable prices
Downstream textile products subject to certain price suppression. After this increase, medium-sized financial institutions to deposit reserve rate of 20.5%

of historic highs.

    4-6 months in previous years is the traditional textile production and downstream PTA season, but because of the current chemical fiber raw materials

prices, costs have risen sharply and the exchange rate high Diego (this year exceeded RMB has appreciated 1.4%), leading to mention the cost of exports

High prices of the domestic apparel orders, making the order is suppressed demand, resulting in PTA is not busy sales season. In addition, because high

levels of assets and liabilities of textile enterprises, are highly dependent on loans, the central bank continued to raise the deposit reserve ratio

Textile enterprises must make the operation and subordinated loan capital increased pressure, to a certain extent, the normal constraints of the textile

industry from production, thereby inhibiting downstream PTA consumption, resulting in PTA prices under pressure.
    Less than the cost of raw materials support

    Due to political instability in North Africa, the international crude oil prices remained strong, as of April 18 closing, the New York Mercantile

Exchange, June crude oil futures prices have eight weeks prior to the $ 93.95 / barrel soared to $ 107.12 / barrel, or over 14 %. However, from

The current trend of crude oil and PTA of view, the rise in crude oil prices on the supporting role of PTA has been a marked weakening.

    Quotes from the PX and MX's point of view, in April 2010 to September, PX and MX spread has been maintained at 125 U.S. dollars / ton. Since July last

year, continuing a steady recovery in PX and MX, but the gains far upstream MX and PX. Deadline April 17 MX prices at 
$ 1,300 / ton South Korean FOB, a recent inspection by the PTA unit and the plunge in stock prices and other factors drag, PX prices were down significantly

the situation, the current high PX prices from the $ 1796 earthquake / ton down to $ 1,595 / ton South Korean FOB. Recent