2011年6月13日星期一

Needs of the PTA support the formation of prices

4. Ningbo PTA plant a set of 80 million tons by the end of February to begin scheduling 5 days for inspection.
    5. Ningbo PTA plant another 60 million tons in April arranged a month maintenance. 
    6. North of a PTA plant plans 5 150 million tons in early arrangements for three weeks or so parking expansion.
    Fifth, on the price difference, inside and outside the spread look, PTA callback would have difficulty lasting.
    From the look of the price difference, since 2007, PTA price difference of 200 yuan daily, the recent increase callback deep PTA futures, spot prices firm on the price difference has been for several days in less than 100 yuan, PTA spot prices firm, 1105 Contract
Closing down 4.79% compared with the beginning, the stock rose 2.71% to offer 11,350 yuan / ton, up 3.9% in the spot outside the disk to 1465 yuan / ton, the spread demand for the return of the price formation on the support of PTA.
    Figure 6: PTA of the price difference map
    The picture shows the difference between PTA chart of current prices. (Source: Hongyuan Futures)
    Spread from the outside perspective, since 2007, PTA spread inside and outside the daily average in the -270 yuan, the recent increase domestic PTA futures deep callback, the callback panel prices, spot prices were relatively strong outer disk, both inside and outside the spread has reached -600 million, spread Regression
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    Figure 7: PTA plans inside and outside the spread
    The picture shows the inside and outside the PTA spread charts. (Source: Hongyuan Futures)
    VI, conclusions and investment advice.
    Overall, crude oil high, upstream PX prices firm, the downstream textile demand season is approaching, lifting the cost of demand-pull, PTA downside is limited, seasonal rally can be expected. Proposes a focus on cotton (33260,610.00,1.87%) walk
Potential, may intervene in case of more than a single rebound, but the government tightening a sword of Damocles, March PTA material gains to slow down.

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